出版社：Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT)
摘要：The Russian economy is evidently largely based on the energy sector. This has raised concern in academic circles as to whether Russia is to some degree affected by the Dutch disease, i.e. whether a sharp rise of commodity prices results in an appreciation of the real exchange rate, which undermines the competitiveness of manufacturing and may lead to the deindustrialization of the economy. We focus on this possible final outcome, which has not been studied much in the literature so far: We compare Russian industrial import growth – based on EU-25 volume export figures to Russia – with domestic industrial production growth, disaggregated by branches, in the period from 2002 to 2006. In all manufacturing sectors except electrical, electronic and optical equipment and strongly protected foodstuffs, imports are found to be expanding faster than domestic output. In some sectors, imports have even exceeded domestic production. Import competition is therefore strong and rising. We conclude that Russia may be facing incipient deindustrialization at least in some parts of the manufacturing sector. This could indicate that the Russian economy has contracted the Dutch disease, although it should be noted that other factors could also have driven sectoral changes. While it is beyond the scope of our study to examine whether the other chain links of the Dutch disease hold as well, it does provide evidence of some movements in the direction of deindustrialization, which is in line with the Dutch disease theory.
