摘要：Like most industrialised countries, Australia's population is ageing due to the progression of the baby boom generations, increasing longevity and decreasing fertility. These trends, with no further decrease in fertility, imply that the proportion of population aged over 74 years will increase from 11.6 per cent in 1999 to 15.4 per cent in 2024 and 23.2 per cent by 2051 (ABS, 1998:11). Should, as seems likely, fertility fall further from its current level then these proportions of old people will increase even further in the future. The economic impact of this ageing population is increased by the fact that old people consume relatively large amounts. According to the calculations in Guest and McDonald (2001a), for people aged over 74 years private plus public expenditures are 19 per cent higher than for other adults. High expenditures on health are the major driving force for this difference. These two factors, the ageing population and the relatively high consumption demands of the old, imply a fall in the labour force relative to the consumption demands of the population by about 12 per cent by 2051
