出版社：Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universität zu Köln
摘要：Electricity generation from renewable energy sources (RES-E) is supposed to increase signi cantly within the coming decades. However, uncertainty about the progress of necessary infrastructure investments, public acceptance and cost developments of renewable energies renders the achievement of political plans uncertain. Implementation risks of renewable energy targets are challenging for investment planning, because di erent RES-E shares fundamentally change the optimal mix of dispatchable power plants. Speci cally, uncertain future RES-E deployment paths induce uncertainty about the steepness of the residual load duration curve and the hourly residual load structure. In this paper, we show how uncertain future RES-E penetrations impact the electricity system and try to quantify e ects for the Central European power market. We use a multi-stage stochastic investment and dispatch model to analyze e ects on investment choices, electricity generation and system costs. Our main ndings include that the uncertain achievement of RES-E targets signi cantly e ects optimal investment decisions. First, a higher share of technologies with a medium capital/operating cost ratio is cost-ecient. Second, the value of storage units in systems with high RES-E penetrations might decrease. Third, in the case of the Central European power market, costs induced by the implementation risk of renewable energies seem to be rather small compared to total system costs.
关键词：Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming; Renewable Energy; Power Plant Optimization
