期刊名称：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
印刷版ISSN：0027-8424
电子版ISSN：1091-6490
出版年度：2013
卷号：110
期号：33
页码：13452-13456
DOI：10.1073/pnas.1303157110
语种：English
出版社：The National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
摘要：Dispersal biology at an invasion front differs from that of populations within the range core, because novel evolutionary and ecological processes come into play in the nonequilibrium conditions at expanding range edges. In a world where species' range limits are changing rapidly, we need to understand how individuals disperse at an invasion front. We analyzed an extensive dataset from radio-tracking invasive cane toads (Rhinella marina) over the first 8 y since they arrived at a site in tropical Australia. Movement patterns of toads in the invasion vanguard differed from those of individuals in the same area postcolonization. Our model discriminated encamped versus dispersive phases within each toad's movements and demonstrated that pioneer toads spent longer periods in dispersive mode and displayed longer, more directed movements while they were in dispersive mode. These analyses predict that overall displacement per year is more than twice as far for toads at the invasion front compared with those tracked a few years later at the same site. Studies on established populations (or even those a few years postestablishment) thus may massively underestimate dispersal rates at the leading edge of an expanding population. This, in turn, will cause us to underpredict the rates at which invasive organisms move into new territory and at which native taxa can expand into newly available habitat under climate change.
关键词：hierarchical Bayes ; shift ; spatial sorting ; relocation data ; hidden states
