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  • 标题:A comparison of the VAR model and the PC factor model in forecasting inflation in Montenegro
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Lipovina-Božović Milena
  • 期刊名称:Economic annals
  • 印刷版ISSN:0013-3264
  • 电子版ISSN:1820-7375
  • 出版年度:2013
  • 卷号:58
  • 期号:198
  • 页码:115-135
  • DOI:10.2298/EKA1398115L
  • 出版社:Faculty of Economics, Belgrade
  • 摘要:

    Montenegro started using the euro in 2002 and regained independence in 2006. Its main economic partners are European countries, yet inflation movements in Montenegro do not coincide with consumer price fluctuations in the eurozone. Trying to develop a useful forecasting model for Montenegrin inflation, we compare the results of a three-variable vector autoregression (VAR) model, and a principle component (PC) factor model starting with twelve variables. The estimation period is January 2001 to December 2012, and the control months are the first six months of 2013. The results show that in forecasting inflation, despite a high level of Montenegrin economic dependence on international developments, more reliable forecasts are achieved with the use of additional information on a larger number of factors, which includes domestic economic activity.

  • 关键词:inflation forecasting; VAR model; factor model; principal component analysis
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