期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2008
卷号：1
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper investigates the persistence of aggregate wages and prices in Por- tugal assuming a model of a unionized economy with imperfect competition. An impulse response analysis is conducted where the structural shocks are identi ed by taking into account the long-run properties of the model, as well as the coin- tegrating and weak-exogeneity properties of the system. Real wages and wage ination emerge as especially persistent following an import price shock, while price ination is more persistent following an unemployment shock. At the busi- ness cycle horizon variation in the forecast errors of wages is attributable mainly to unemployment shocks (about 80 percent), whereas variation in the forecast errors of prices is attributable mainly to import price shocks (about 60 percent) and to unemployment shocks (around 20 percent). Productivity shocks explain somewhat less than 10 percent of the variation in forecast errors of wages and prices.
