期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2008
卷号：1
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We use a newly available dataset of euro area quarterly national accounts ¯scal data and construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the government de¯cit, revenue and expenditure in order to assess its information content and its potential use for ¯scal fore- casting and monitoring purposes. The models are estimated with annual and quarterly national accounts ¯scal data, but also incorporate monthly information taken from the cash accounts of the governments. The results show the usefulness of our approach for real-time ¯scal policy surveillance in Europe, given the current policy framework in which the relevant o±cial ¯gures are expressed in annual terms.
关键词：Fiscal policies; Mixed frequency data; Forecasting; Unobserved Components;Models; State Space; Kalman Filter.
