期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2008
卷号：1
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：In a globalised world economy, global factors have become increasingly important to explain trade ows at the expense of country-speci c deter- minants. This paper shows empirically the superiority of direct forecasting methods, in which world trade is directly forecasted at the aggregate lev- els, relative to bottom-up" approaches, where world trade results from an aggregation of country-speci c forecasts. Factor models in particular prove rather accurate, where the factors summarise large-scale datasets relevant in the determination of trade ows
关键词：World trade; Factor models; Forecasts; Time series mod-;els.
