期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2008
卷号：1
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：Under ination targeting ination exhibits negative serial correlation in the United Kingdom, and little or no persistence in Canada, Sweden and New Zealand, and estimates of the indexation parameter in hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curves are either equal to zero, or very low, in all countries. Analogous results hold for the Euro area–and for France, Germany, and Italy–under European Monetary Union; for Switzerland under the new monetary regime; and for the United States, the United Kingdom and Sweden under the Gold Standard: under stable monetary regimes with clearly dened nominal anchors, ination appears to be (nearly) purely forward-looking, so that no mechanism introducing backward-looking components is necessary to t the data. These results question the notion that the intrinsic ination persistence found in post-WWII U.S. data–captured, in hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curves, by a signicant extent of backward-looking indexation–is structural in the sense of Lucas (1976), and suggest that building ination persistence into macroeconomic models as a structural feature is potentially misleading.
关键词：Inflation; European Monetary Union; inflation targeting; Gold Standard;Lucas critique; median-unbiased estimation; Markov Chain Monte Carlo
