期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2007
卷号：1
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：Using data from the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters, we investigate the reporting practices of survey participants by comparing their point predictions and the mean/median/mode of their probability forecasts. We nd that the individual point predictions, on average, tend to be biased towards favourable outcomes: they suggest too high growth and too low ination rates. Most importantly, for each survey round, the aggregate survey results based on the average of the individual point predictions are also biased. These ndings cast doubt on combined survey measures that average individual point predictions. Survey results based on probability forecasts are more reliable.
关键词：point estimates; subjective probability distributions; Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF);survey methods
