期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2001
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper shows that money can play an important role as an information variable when initial output data are measured with error and subject to revision. Using an estimated model ofthe euro area we find that current output estimates may be substantially improved by including money growth in the information set. The gain in precision, however, depends on the magnitude ofthe output measurement error relative to the money demand shock. We find noticable but small improvements in output estimates, ifthe uncertainty due to money demand shocks corresponds to the estimated variance obtained from the money demand equation. Money plays a quantitatively more important role with regard to output estimation ifw e allow for a contribution ofmonetary analysis in reducing uncertainty due to money demand shocks. In this case, money also helps to reduce uncertainty about output forecasts.
