期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2002
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：Under the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) European Union (EU) Member States commit themselves to avoid excessive de cits over 3% of GDP and to pursue the medium-term objective of budgetary positions close to bal- ance or in surplus. The SGP provides also regulation for the surveillance of budgetary positions. An analysis of associated tools is the focus of this paper. In particular, it addresses two open issues in the empirical public nance literature which are crucial for monitoring scal policy discipline in the EU. First, the estimation of the structural component of the scal balance ratio. Second, the computation, when only annual scal data is available, of quarterly budget balance ratios, using relevant information from quarterly measured macroeconomic series. An econometric model that addresses both issues is presented and estimated. Additionally, this modelling framework allows us to answer questions such as: what is the safety margin that will prevent a particular country from reaching with certain probability a budget de cit that breaches the 3% upper bound?4
关键词：Structural De cit Ratio; State Space Modelling; Interpolation.g.
