期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2003
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper o¤ers an alternative explanation for the behavior of postwar US in‡ation by measuring a novel source of monetary policy time-inconsistency due to Cukierman (2002). In the presence of asymmetric preferences, the monetary authorities end up generating a systematic in‡ation bias through the private sector expectations of a larger policy response in recessions than in booms. Reduced-form estimates of US monetary policy rules indicate that while the in‡ation target declines from the pre- to the post-Volcker regime, the average in‡ation bias, which is about one percent before 1979, tends to disappear over the last two decades. This result can be rationalized in terms of the preference on output stabilization, which is found to be large and asymmetric in the former but not in the latter period.
关键词：asymmetric preferences; time-inconsistency; average in‡ation bias; US in‡ation
