期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2004
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for Euro-area in
ation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behaviour of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coecients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas critique, our principal nding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the Euro-area in
ation process. Full-sample estimates of the persistence parameter are generally close to one, and we fail to reject the hypothesis that this parameter has been stable over time. We discuss how these results provide some indirect evidence against rational expectations models with strong forward-looking elements, such as the New-Keynesian Phillips curve.
关键词：In;ation Persistence; Euro Area; Lucas Critique
