期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2004
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry and Mestre (2001) - and estimated versions of the (single equation) P* model and a hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve. The evidence from these comparisons does not invite decisive conclusions. There is, however, some support in favour of the (reduced form) AWM inflation equation. It is the only model that encompasses a general unrestricted model and it forecast encompasses the competitors when tested on 20 quarters of one step ahead forecasts.
关键词：inflation; incomplete competition model; Area Wide model;P*-model; New Keynesian Phillips curve; model evaluation; forecast encompassing
