期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2006
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper estimates a hybrid New Keynesian model on euro area data and evaluates the performance of di¤erent simple policy rules and of the optimal unconstrained rule under commitment. The study reaches two main conclusions. First, ination is found to be mainly forward-looking in the euro area, which implies the optimal policy reaction to cost push shocks is a muted one. Sec- ond, a "speed limit" rule of the type recently proposed by Walsh (2003) is able to closely approximate the performance of the op- timal rule under commitment. The optimal speed limit rule is also characterised by super-inertia, making it a rst di¤erence rule similar to those recently proposed as a possible solution to measurement problems in the level of the natural interest rate and of potential output.
