期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2006
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We study the convergence properties of in
ation rates among the countries of the European Monetary Union over the period 1980-2004. Given the Maastricht agreements and the adoption of the single cur- rency, the sample can be naturally split into two parts, before and after the birth of the euro. We study convergence in the rst sub-sample by means of univariate and multivariate unit root tests on in
ation di er- entials, arguing that the power of the tests is considerably increased if the Dickey-Fuller regressions are run without an intercept term. Over- all, we are able to accept the convergence hypothesis over the period 1980-1997. We then investigate whether the second sub-sample is char- acterized by stable in
ation rates across the European countries. Using stationarity tests on in
ation di erentials, we nd evidence of diverg- ing behaviour. In particular, we can statistically detect two separate clusters, or convergence clubs: a lower in
ation group that comprises Germany, France, Belgium, Austria, Finland and a higher in
ation one with Spain, Netherlands, Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Italy appears to form a cluster of its own, standing in between the other two.
关键词：Absolute Convergence; In;ation Di erentials; Stabil-;ity; Unit Root Tests.
