期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2010
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：The nancial crisis of 2008/2009 has left European economies with a sizeable public debt stock bringing back the question what factors help to reduce these scal imbalances. Using data for the period 1985- 2009 this paper identi es factors determining major public debt reduc- tions. On average, the total debt reduction per country amounted to almost 37 percentage points of GDP.We estimate several speci cations of a logistic probability model. Our ndings suggest that, rst, ma- jor debt reductions are mainly driven by decisive and lasting (rather than timid and short-lived) scal consolidation e orts focused on re- ducing government expenditure, in particular, cuts in social bene ts and public wages. Second, robust real GDP growth also increases the likelihood of a major debt reduction because it helps countries to \grow their way out" of indebtedness. Third, high debt servicing costs play a disciplinary role strengthened by market forces and require govern- ments to set up credible plans to stop and reverse the increasing debt ratios.
关键词：Fiscal policy; public debt; binary choice models
