期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2010
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：There is already a small literature emphasising the empirical failure of the New Keynesian IS curve, but it is not yet known if this failure reects empirical problems associated with small samples or is rather a structural weakness of the underlying model. To address this question, in this paper I estimate the New Keynesian IS curve for output and consumption and several possible extensions on panel data from 22 OECD countries over 40 years of data. I also evaluate whether the key parameters of the IS curve change according to countries economic and nancial structure. The main nding is that output and consumption are mainly forward looking, and this is a very robust feature of the data. At the same time, I nd little evidence in favour of the traditional speci cation where the real interest rate enters with a negative sign due to intertemporal substitution; on the contrary, it is typically either insigni cant or wrongly signed. Overall, I conclude that the New Keynesian IS curve, at least in its most common formulations, is not structural and is overwhelmingly rejected by the data.
关键词：IS curve; New Keynesian model; panel data; Instrumental variables
