期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2010
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We characterise the evolution of the U.S. unemployment-ination tradeo since the late XIX century era via a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR. The Great Ination episode appears as historically unique along several dimensions. In particular, the shape of the ‘Phillips loop’–which is dened in terms of the impulse-response functions of ination and unemployment’s deviations from equilibrium–was, during those years, clearly out of line with respect to the rest of the sample period for all structural innovations except money demand shocks. During the Great Depression, on the other hand, the Phillips trade-o did not exhibit any peculiar qualitative feature, so that, when seen through these lenses, the 1930s only stand out because of the sheer size of the macroeconomic uctuation. The historical evolution of the Phillips trade-o exhibits virtually no connection with the evolution of the extent of trade openness of the U.S. economy. Although, by itself, this does not rule out a possible impact of globalisation on the slope of the trade-o in recent years, it clearly suggests that, historically, the evolution of the trade-o has been dominated by factors other than trade openness.
关键词：Phillips trade-o; Lucas critique; Bayesian VARs; time-varying;parameters; stochastic volatility; identied VARs; Great Ination; Great;Depression; globalisation.
