期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2011
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2007-09 nancial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of con dence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United States and the euro area. It shows under which circumstances con dence indicators can be a good predictor of household consumption even after controlling for information in economic fundamentals. Overall, the results show that the consumer con dence index can be in certain circumstances a good predictor of consumption. In particular, out-of-sample evidence shows that the contribution of con dence in explaining consumption expenditures increases when household survey indicators feature large changes, so that con dence indicators can have some increasing predictive power during such episodes. Moreover, there is some evidence of a con dence channelin the international transmission of shocks, as U.S. con dence indices lead consumer sentiment in the euro area
关键词：Consumer Con dence; Consumption; International Linkages; Non-linear modeling.
