期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2012
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：The aim of this study is to assess the extent to which the degree of het- erogeneity of in
ation expectations is driven by the
ow of information related to current and future price developments. To that end, we follow three routes: i) We propose di erent measures of information
ow that have either a sender or a receiver perspective; ii) We present empirical results for the US and selected EU countries that aim to corroborate the hypothesis that news have the ability to densify expectations, i.e. to reduce forecast heterogeneity; and iii) We augment some otherwise standard mod- els of expectation formation by allowing the individual updating frequency to depend on the observed measure of information
ow; since the updating frequency is higher at times of high in
ation and decreasing thereafter, this mechanism can contribute to upward biases in in
ation expectations over long periods of time.
关键词：Heterogeneous beliefs; disagreement; public information
