期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2012
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate's long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s2007), and recent substantial increase (20082011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious `buer stock' model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is aected by the gap between `target' and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate's long-term decline, while uctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.
