期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2012
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：We challenge the view that the relationship between money and prices is too loose in countries with low ination rates and argue that cross-border portfolio shifts are the root cause of the volatility in real money balances. The novelty of this paper is that we model jointly in the euro area and the United States (i) the equilibrium in the money market that takes into account the cross-border portfolio shifts, and (ii) the equilibrium in the domestic asset markets, by nding a no-arbitrage relation between domestic long-horizon expected stock and bond returns. We estimate a stable money demand in the long-run and nd that the short-run correlation between annual ination and model-based excess money growth is not statistically di¤erent from unity in both the euro area and the United States. We also nd that the resulting long-run equity risk premium comoves counter-cyclically with quarterly real GDP growth in both economies.
