期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2013
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：Existing evidence suggests that protectionist activity since the financial crisis has been muted, raising the question whether the historically well-documented relation- ship between growth, real exchange rates and trade protectionism has broken down. This paper re-visits this relationship for the time period since 2009. To this end, we use a novel and comprehensive dataset which considers a wide range of trade policies stretching beyond the traditionally considered tariff and trade defence mea- sures. We find that the specter of protectionism has not been banished: Countries continue to pursue more trade-restrictive policies when they experience recessions and/or when their competitiveness deteriorates through an appreciation of the real exchange rate; and this finding holds for a wide array of contemporary trade poli- cies, including “murky” measures. We also find differences in the recourse to trade protectionism across countries: trade policies of G20 advanced economies respond more strongly to changes in domestic growth and real exchange rates than those of G20 emerging market economies. Moreover, G20 economies’ trade policies vis-`a-vis other G20 economies are less responsive to changes in real exchange rates than those pursued vis-`a-vis non-G20 economies. Our results suggest that—especially in light of the sluggish recovery—the global economy continues to be exposed to the risk of a creeping return of trade protectionism
