期刊名称：Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Statistics
印刷版ISSN：1830-3420
电子版ISSN：1830-3439
出版年度：2013
出版社：European Central Bank
摘要：The failure of trade economists to anticipate the extreme drop in trade post Lehman Brothers bankruptcy suggests that the behavior of trade in exceptional circumstances may still be poorly understood. This paper explores whether uncertainty shocks have explanatory power for movements in trade. VAR estimations on United States data suggest that domestic uncertainty is a strong predictor of movements in imports, but has little e ect on exports. Guided by these results, the paper estimates a bilateral model with focus on the impact of importer uncertainty on foreign suppliers. It nds that there is a strong negative relationship between uncertainty and trade and that this relationship is non-linear. Uncertainty matters most when its levels are exceptionally high. The paper does not nd evidence of learning from past turmoils, suggesting that prior experience with major uncertainty shocks does not reduce the e ect on trade. In line with the expectations, the negative e ect of uncertainty shocks on trade is higher for trade relationships more intensive in durable goods. Surprisingly, however, the e ect of durability is non-linear. Supply chain considerations or the possibility that the relationships with the highest durability lead to important compositional e ects may have a bearing on the results. The results are robust to excluding the post Lehman shock, suggesting that the trade response during the 2008-2009 crisis has been similar to past uncertainty events.
关键词：uncertainty shocks; international trade; exporters
