摘要：Prices in the currency options market can provide an indication of market perceptions of theuncertainty attached to future exchange rates. We have used these option prices to calculate theprobability distribution for the krone exchange rate against the Deutsche mark since 1 January1998. Until August 1998, the market expected relatively low volatility in the krone exchangerate, and the probability of an appreciation or a depreciation of the krone was considered to bevirtually the same. The krone depreciated during the autumn of 1998 and uncertainty surroun-ding future movements of the krone exchange rate increased substantially. At the same time, theprevailing view among market participants seemed to be that a considerable depreciation of thekrone was more probable than a corresponding appreciation. This volatility subsided during thespring of 1999 to about the level prior to the depreciation of the krone in the autumn of 1998.The estimated probability distribution for the krone exchange rate at end-May was approxi-mately equal to the corresponding distribution in July of last year, ie the market assessment ofkrone exchange rate uncertainty seems to be about the same as it was prior to the currencyunrest in the autumn of 1998
