摘要：This article examines how the krone exchange rate is influenced by factors such as the oil price and turbulencein international financial markets. The article contains an analysis of the krone exchange rate against theGerman mark (the euro from 1 January 1999) and against an average of our trading partners' currencies. Inthe long term, the krone exchange rate is found to be dependent on the oil price and the price differentialbetween Norway and other countries. In the short term, the krone exchange rate is also influenced by inter-national financial turbulence and by the interest rate differential against other countries. International financialturbulence has had a particular effect on the krone exchange rate since January 1997, when there was a sharpincrease in the daily volatility of the krone exchange rate. In this period, effects stemming from internationalforeign exchange markets appear to have had at least as great an impact as the oil price on monthly movementsin the krone exchange rate. The estimation results indicate that the krone exchange rate against trading partners is at present considerablyweaker than its long-term equilibrium rate. This being the case, it would be natural to expect a strengtheningof the effective krone exchange rate over time. However, the model predicts that, measured against the euro,the krone will depreciate somewhat in the longer term. If both effects are to occur at the same time, the eurowill have to appreciate considerably in relation to its present level
