摘要：By being open about its policy response pattern, the central bank allows economic agents to understand theimplementation of monetary policy. They will then be able to anticipate the central bank's interest rate decisionsto a fairly large extent. Transparency and predictability can contribute to strengthening monetary policycredibility and enhance its effectiveness. This article assesses the predictability of Norges Bank's interest ratesetting since 1999, and includes a comparison with a number of other countries. Changes in money marketrates after the monetary policy meetings are used as an indication of whether the decisions surprised marketparticipants. The study indicates that interest rate decisions in Norway have surprised market participantssomewhat more than in other countries, particularly in 2001. This may be because the economic situation hasbeen fairly different in Norway compared with other countries. In addition, the inflation target was intro-duced relatively recently in Norway. Over time, however, it is the actual inflation developments that are decisivefor monetary policy credibility. Long-term indicators show that inflation expectations in Norway are close tothe inflation target
