摘要：Household debt has increased by 10–11 per cent annually since 2000. In the following, the factors underlyingthe strong growth in debt are analysed using an empirical model. The debt growth of recent years is found tobe related to developments in the housing market and to the decline in interest rates since December 2002. Asa result of the sharp rise in house prices from 1998 to 2001, debt growth remained at a high level while houseprices declined in the latter half of 2002 and into 2003. This reflects that only a small portion of the housingstock changes hands each year. Even if house prices level off following a rise, there will be a long period dur-ing which houses change hands at a higher price than the last time they were sold. An increase in house priceswill therefore contribute to debt growth for a long time. Households may increase their debt further by rais-ing loans to finance consumption and investment with collateral in the increased value of their dwellings. Thistype of borrowing has probably increased in recent years
