摘要：In recent years, many countries have experienced a sharp rise in house prices and household credit. Manyhave expressed concern that this development is not sustainable over time and that it may lead to financialimbalances. In this article, we will consider whether historical indicators can predict banking crises throughthe last 150 years. Using a Hodrick-Prescott filter, we calculate the gap between actual observations and trendfor real house prices, real equity prices, gross fixed investment and credit on the basis of Norwegian data backto 1819. We find that all gap indicators are useful in predicting earlier banking crises in Norway. With fewexceptions, the indicators show a common pattern – the gaps widen from one to six years prior to the bank-ing crises and subsequently fall. As a rule, at least two of the gap indicators have high values prior to thebanking crises, indicating that combinations of indicators may increase the strength of the analysis. We alsofind that indicator values that can be associated with a banking crisis, i.e. the threshold values, may be some-what higher in Norway than in comparable international studies
