标题：Commodities prices index as a variable determining the consumer inflation rate and the monetary policy: Recent evidences for the Brazilian economy through a VAR analysis
摘要：This work investigates the nature of the Brazilian consumer inflation rate for the period from January/2005 to June/2011, through implementing the Vector Autoregressive method. It was verifi ed that the Brazilian consumer inflation rate change is basically determined with time lags (Granger sense) by the commodities prices fluctuations, instead of by domestic activity dynamics. Hence, this work found statistical significance for the hypothesis of supply shocks as the main cause on the country's consumer inflation trajecto ry and, as a consequence, on the monetary policy decisions in the Brazil's inflation targeting regime; on the other hand, evidences for rejecting the hypothesis of demand shocks were also observed. In their turn, these evidences confirm that the domestic monetary policy is under the trade-offs effects situation
