标题：Forecasting of the selected features of Poaceae (R. Br.) Barnh., Artemisia L. and Ambrosia L. pollen season in Szczecin, north-western Poland, using Gumbel’s distribution
期刊名称：Annals of Agricultural and Environmental Medicine
印刷版ISSN：1232-1966
电子版ISSN：1898-2263
出版年度：2013
卷号：20
期号：1
页码：36-47
出版社：Institute of Agricultural Medicine in Lublin
摘要：Introduction and objectives. The allergenic pollen content of the atmosphere varies according to climate, biogeography and vegetation. Minimisation of the pollen allergy symptoms is related to the possibility of avoidance of large doses of the allergen. Measurements performed in Szczecin over a period of 13 years (2000-2012 inclusive) permitted prediction of theoretical maximum concentrations of pollen grains and their probability for the pollen season of Poaceae, Artemisia and Ambrosia. Moreover, the probabilities were determined of a given date as the beginning of the pollen season, the date of the maximum pollen count, Seasonal Pollen Index value and the number of days with pollen count above threshold values.Materials and methods. Aerobiological monitoring was conducted using a Hirst volumetric trap (Lanzoni VPPS). Linear trend with determination coefficient (R2) was calculated. Model for long-term forecasting was performed by the method based on Gumbel's distribution.Results. A statistically significant negative correlation was determined between the duration of pollen season of Poaceae and Artemisia and the Seasonal Pollen Index value. Seasonal, total pollen counts of Artemisia and Ambrosia showed a strong and statistically significant decreasing tendency. On the basis of Gumbel's distribution, a model was proposed for Szczecin, allowing predic tion of the probabilities of the maximum pollen count values that can appear once in e.g. 5, 10 or 100 years.Conclusions. Short pollen seasons are characterised by a higher intensity of pollination than long ones. Predic tion of the maximum pollen count values, dates of the pollen season beginning, and the number of days with pollen count above the threshold, on the basis of Gumbel's distribution, is expected to lead to improvement in the prophylaxis and therapy of persons allergic to pollen
