摘要：Scholars have seen a contradiction in Polybius' view of history because, on the one hand, he talks of cycles and recurrent actions, but on the other is aware of the un-predictable aspects of history (as seen, e.g., with tychê). The present paper seeks to show that there is no contradiction in Polybius' thought, since alongside the belief that the fu-ture can be deduced by drawing logical (κατ. λ.γον) conclusions from the past, there is another strand in Polybius which recognises and indeed highlights the importance of contingency in history, and the fact that many events occur contrary to human reckoning (παρ. λ.γον). Although Polybius does not discuss the latter explicitly, he nonetheless un-derscores it by the use of counterfactual thinking and of narratives that emphasise acci-dental occurrences. Both approaches serve, although in different ways, the paideutic purposes of Polybius' work
