摘要：One of our most important tasks is communicating health risks to the public. We do a poor job of that, primarily because the metric we use, probability, is not well understood. The misunderstanding does not arise merely because ordinary folks are poorly educated in this regard. Indeed, as Gird Gigerenzer (2002) of the Max Planck Institute in Berlin has repeatedly demonstrated, health professionals are no less confused by probabilities than laypersons
