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文章基本信息

  • 标题:The effect of long and short time oil shocks on economic growth in Iran
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Sayyed, Abdolmajid Jalaee ; Sanaz, Mohammadi
  • 期刊名称:The Romanian Economic Journal
  • 印刷版ISSN:1454-4296
  • 出版年度:2012
  • 期号:46
  • 出版社:Editura ASE
  • 摘要:Oil is one of the strategic good so that price fluctuations and shocks of it have major effects on economic growth and recession in depended countries to revenues of it. In this study, it is tried that the effect of oil price shocks investigated in two types(short and long time) on Economic growth in Iran. Its Period is from 1974 to 2006. According it, oil price uncertainty is quantized by GARCH model and is determined the effects of oil price shocks on economic growth in Iran during a short and extended time by Vector Auto-regression Estimates (VAR), Vector Error Correction Estimates (VECM), Unrestricted Co-integration Rank Test (Trace) tests. The results of these estimations have shown that the effect of oil price shocks in short and prolonged course on economic growth in Iran had been negative.
  • 关键词:economic growth; oil price shock; GARCH model; VAR model; VECM model.
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