首页    期刊浏览 2025年07月14日 星期一
登录注册

文章基本信息

  • 标题:Can earnings forecasts be improved by taking into account the forecast bias?
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Sandrine LARDIC ; Karine MICHALON ; François DOSSOU
  • 期刊名称:Economics Bulletin
  • 电子版ISSN:1545-2921
  • 出版年度:2008
  • 卷号:7
  • 出版社:Economics Bulletin
  • 摘要:The recent period has highlighted a well-known phenomenon, namely the existence of a positive bias in experts' anticipations. Literature on this subject underlines optimism in the financial analyst community. In this work, our significant contributions are twofold: we provide explanatory bias prediction models which will subsequently allow the calculation of earnings adjusted forecasts, for horizons from 1 to 24 months. We explain the bias using macroeconomic as well as sector and firm specific variables. We obtain some important results. In particular, the macroeconomic variables are statistically significant and their signs are coherent with the intuition. However, we conclude that the microeconomic variables are the main explanatory variables. From the forecast evaluation statistics viewpoints, the adjusted forecasts make it possible quasi-systematically to improve the forecasts of the analysts.
  • 关键词:Analysts Forecasts
国家哲学社会科学文献中心版权所有