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  • 标题:A comparison of different forecasting models of the international trade in India
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Aviral Kumar Tiwari ; Claudiu T Albulescu ; Phouphet Kyophilavong
  • 期刊名称:Economics Bulletin
  • 电子版ISSN:1545-2921
  • 出版年度:2014
  • 卷号:34
  • 期号:1
  • 页码:420-430
  • 出版社:Economics Bulletin
  • 摘要:We assess the out-of-sample forecasting performance of eight models on Indian real exports and imports. The results, in large part show only a slight increase or no clear increase in India's international trade. However, the results are very robust when comparing the predictions in terms of exports and imports. In both the cases, the ARIMA and ETS models perform better in terms of the accuracy fit.
  • 关键词:Trade; Forecasting; India; Exponential smoothing; Holt–Winters; Box–Jenkins
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