期刊名称：The Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition
印刷版ISSN：1606-0997
电子版ISSN：2072-1315
出版年度：2004
卷号：22
期号：1
页码：27-33
出版社：International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh
摘要：Diarrhoea is still a considerable public-health problem in developing countries, especially among children aged less than five years. The well-known relationship between seasonal variation and aetiological agents of diarrhoeal diseases helps inform the decisions about the prevention and control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the temporal patterns of deaths due to diarrhoea in children, aged less than five years, in Rio de Janeiro State from 1980 to 1998. The study analyzed data on monthly deaths due to diarrhoea; the data were supplied by the Natural Mortality Information System (NMIS, Ministry of Health of Brazil). Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average modelling was applied to the data. Using this model, the huge decline and the winter peaks could be highlighted, and they may express the predominance of rotavirus as the aetiology of diarrhoeal deaths, suggesting that an effective vaccine is the main measure for the prevention and control of severe diarrhoea.
关键词：Diarrhoea; Times series; Epidemiology; Seasonality; Brazil
