期刊名称：International Journal of Energy and Environment
印刷版ISSN：2076-2895
电子版ISSN：2076-2909
出版年度：2014
卷号：5
期号：2
页码：257-268
出版社：International Energy and Environment Foundation (IEEF)
摘要：This paper presents an approach that combines First Order Reliability Method (FORM) with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) to solve constrained stochastic optimization problems in a proficient way. Based on FORM/MCS, this paper shows how parametric uncertainties can be characterized, modelled, propagated across the life cycle of an engineering system and then obtain a wide range of performance measures that can support engineers as they seek to improve design/operational robustness, safety and cost efficiency. A case study involving counter flow heat exchanger is performed to illustrate applicability and usefulness of the approach. Impacts of uncertainties on the worth of energy to be recovered by the heat exchanger from waste process fluid are represented through probability distributions, bounds and a number of performance measures. Sensitivity of the performance target, in this case, financial gain, to each of the basic variables is determined, both in magnitude and direction. Two sets of specifications are also considered to demonstrate that the approach can be used to conduct reliability based performance improvement without attracting disproportionate cost.
