摘要：Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of
climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. In
this context, this paper describes a research methodology for assessing
potential climate change impacts on, and formulating adaptation options for,
agriculture at regional level. The methodology was developed and applied in the
analysis of climate change impacts on key horticultural commodities—pome fruits
(apples and pears), stone fruits (peaches and nectarines) and wine grapes—in
the Goulburn Broken catchment management region, State of Victoria, Australia.
Core components of the methodology are mathematical models that enable to
spatially represent the degree of biophysical land suitability for the growth
of agricultural commodities in the region of interest given current and future
climatic conditions. The methodology provides a sound analytic approach to 1) recognise
regions under threat of declines in agricultural production due to unfolding
climatic changes; 2) identify alternative agricultural systems better
adapted to likely future climatic conditions and 3) investigate
incremental and transformational adaptation actions to improve the problem
situations that are being created by climate change.
