摘要：This paper presents an agriculture sector focused Computable General Equilibrium(CGE) model for analyzing the economy-wide impacts of changes in production technology,protection, and market structure on resource allocation, production, and trade in Indonesia.The paper incorporates a specification of the rice market and models Bulog's (National LogisticAgency) behavior using a mixed complementarity approach. This approach allows thespecification of inequalities and changes in policy regime as prices and/or stocks move withinspecified bands. The model is used to examine the impact on the Indonesian economy ofchanges in rice yields given different assumptions about the operations of Bulog. The generalequilibrium approach does capture and quantify the effects of the price support policies onresource allocation, trade, relative prices, and the government budget. An important result is theinefficient allocation of resources within the agriculture sector and the rest of the economy ifBulog operates to maintain the rice price when there are significant increases in riceproductivity. Instead of releasing resources to other high-value agriculture uses and non-agriculture uses, the price support scheme attracts more resources into rice production. Inaddition, the price support program is costly and strains the government accounts, even if theadministrative cost of operating the program are ignored.
