摘要：While the combination of several or more models is often found to improve forecasts (Brandt and Bessler, Min and Zellner, Norwood and Schroeder), hypothesis tests are typically conducted using a single model approach 1 . Hypothesis tests and forecasts have similar goals; they seek to define a range over which a parameter should lie within a degree of confidence. If it is true that, on average, composite forecasts are more accurate than a single model's forecast, it might also be true that hypothesis tests using information from numerous models are, on average, more accurate in the sense of lower Type I and Type II errors than hypothesis tests using a single model.
