摘要：Over the next several years, crop prices are projected to be below to slightly abovecommodity loan rates. As a result, marketing loan benefits to farmers, in the formof loan deficiency payments and marketing loan gains from the commodity loanprogram, are likely to continue to be sizeable. The level of realized per-unit revenues facilitated by marketing loans exceeds commodity loan rates, therebyraising expected net returns to farmers. Model simulations show that the loan program can raise total acreage planted to major field crops, generally increasinglevels of domestic use and exports while lowering crop prices. Cross-commodityeffects of supply response to relative returns (including marketing loan benefits),however, result in acreage shifts among competing crops, which can lead to reduc-tions in plantings of some crops in some years. Most impacts occur in the yearswhen there are marketing loan benefits, with little effect in subsequent years whenprices rise high enough to eliminate marketing loan benefits. The livestock sectorbenefits from these outcomes because of generally lower feed costs.
