摘要：This article explores the modest impact of the Asian Crisis on Australia's primarycommodity exports. Simulations using a global general equilibrium model show: (i)as capital ￡ees Asia, investment in Australia increases and the trade de￠cit grows;(ii) while terms of trade deteriorate in the short run, they improve in the mediumrun as import demand increases in the crisis countries; (iii) exports of primarycommodities expand as the crisis countries try to export more; (iv) more income-elastic primary commodities fare less well than the income-inelastic foodstu.s asincomes decline in the crisis countries; (v) Australia's relatively low dependence onmanufactured exports was a bu.er as manufactured exports came under heavypressure from exports from the crisis countries.
