摘要：The socioeconomic costs of floods, droughts, and water scarcity in the years 2030 and2095 are examined under three climate scenarios: continuation of the current climate and twoclimate-change scenarios based on projections from the respective results of the Canadian andHadley general circulation models. Measures of the adequacy of water supplies to meet bothwithdrawal and instream uses under current and future conditions are developed for the 18 majorwater resources regions and 99 assessment subregions in the conterminous United States. Pastand likely future changes in the infrastructure available to control and distribute water, the costsof nontraditional sources of supply, water management practices, conservation opportunities, thenature of the economy, slack in the water supply system, and institutions influencing water useare examined and provide the basis for evaluating the impacts of changes in both climate andnon-climate factors on U.S. water resources. The impacts of the climate changes are calculatedas the changes in the costs of maintaining the projected no-climate change, non-irrigation off-stream water uses with the climate-altered supplies. The costs and benefits are estimated underthree alternative management strategies that differ in the protection provided for stream-flowsand irrigation. The results support several general conclusions. First, a greenhouse warmingcould have major impacts on the future costs of floods, droughts, and balancing water demandsand supplies. Second, the contrasting hydrologic implications of the Canadian and Hadleyclimate models indicate that the magnitude as well as the direction of these impacts are uncertainand likely to vary significantly among water resources regions. Third, there are many oppor-tunities to adapt to changing hydrological conditions, and the net costs are particularly sensitiveto the institutions that determine how the resource is managed and allocated among users.This report was prepared as part of the Water Assessment Sector Team's contribution tothe U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Changefor the Nation being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program.The climate-change scenarios used in this report were developed for use in the NationalAssessment.
关键词：water and climate; climate change; socioeconomic impacts of climate change;adaptation to climate change; water management and climate change
