摘要：One of the most controversial aspects of federal and state policies aimed at protecting old-growthecosystems has been the potential impact of job losses on local economies. A fundamental question forhistorically timber-dependent communities is whether these policies will result in local economicstagnation and enduring pockets of poverty. In this paper, we examine the long-run impact of changes intimber-related employment on other types of employment and participation in major federal povertyprograms. We use monthly, multi-county time series data to estimate a vector autoregressive model ofthe experience of northern California counties during the 1980s and 1990s. We find that employment basemultiplier effects of timber employment on other types of employment in each county are small, and stateeconomic conditions rather than local employment conditions are the principal driver behind localpoverty.
关键词：forest policy; poverty; employment; time series
