摘要：Farmers need information about the expected value and variability ofnet revenues for alternative crop insurance and futures hedgingstrategies to manage risk. Specifically, the model will determine whichrisk management strategies are most desirable under various levels ofrisk aversion. The unstable futures basis relation in the data used in thesimulation model contributed to increased variability of net revenues. Ingeneral, none of the crop insurance or hedging strategies markedlyreduced variability of net revenue and relative riskiness when comparedwith the cash strategy. Revenue Assurance strategies were the mosteffective at setting a floor on net revenues. As a result, RevenueAssurance products may perform well for extremely risk averseproducers.
关键词：monte carlo simulation; stochastic dominance;stochastic simulation
