摘要：During January, wheat producers are faced with production and marketing decisions that require a forecast of season average price. The purpose of this publication is to provide historical data and a price forecasting model that will provide producers with a means to estimate season average price. The historical data in Table 1 provides a benchmark against which to evaluate current acreage, production, use, stocks, and price. The price forecasting model provides a method to estimate the upcoming season average price under various conditions. The publication is divided into four sections. The first section, Supply and Demand, explains how a supply and demand table is constructed. A producer who understands the basics of a supply and demand table will understand the major factors that influence the price of wheat. The second section, Forecasting Model, describes the price forecasting model and explains how to forecast the United States season average price using the 1998/99 crop year as an example. The third section, Price Sensitivity Analysis, explains the historical accuracy of the price estimates and how to use historical information to predict what can happen to wheat prices under three different scenarios. The fourth section, Developing a Pricing Strategy, contains historical December futures prices and discusses how these prices are related to estimated ending stocks and season average price, forward pricing opportunities, and the development of a pricing strategy.
