摘要：The objective of this study is to simulate the effect of population pressure, marketintegration, technological improvement and policy decisions on natural resource managementin the hillsides of Honduras. To do so, we developed a bioeconomic model that combinesdynamic linear programming with a biophysical model, then applied this model to a typicalmicrowatershed. Over recent years, farmers from the selected microwatershed have followeda "vegetables-intensive" pathway of development. We ran different scenarios with historicaldata over the period 1975 to 1995 and then projected 25 years into the future from 1995 to2020.The results of the bioeconomic model presented in this paper help to test a number ofinduced innovation hypotheses. Many of our hypotheses are confirmed, but some of themodel's results challenge conventional wisdom. The simulation results confirm thattechnology improvements such as irrigation and new varieties can help overcome diminishingreturns to labor due to population pressure. Population increases in La Lima had only a smalleffect on the condition of natural resources because the cropped area increased only slowlythanks to the intensification of production. The model confirms that the relationship betweenpopulation growth and natural resource condition has a U-shaped structure. In the long term,population pressure is likely to lead to continuing improvement in the condition of naturalresources. The hypothesis that improvements in access to markets increase per capitaincomes was confirmed by our results, but improvements in access to markets do notnecessarily promote land conservation because land values do not necessarily increase. Thehypothesis that agroecological conditions are the most important factors determining incomesand natural resource condition is confirmed by the results. Past policy interventions such as market liberalization, road construction, constructionof the potable water distribution system, crop variety improvement and extension serviceshave all helped to increase incomes. However, the simulations suggest that had thegovernment banned inorganic fertilizer, undertaken a land reform, or promoted dairyproduction during 1975 to 1995, these policies would not have been successful. The forwardlooking baseline scenario suggests that erosion will continue to increase if prices remainconstant. If commodity prices decline, however, erosion will decline because farmers willreduce their production of vegetables during the rainy season. Conversely, an increase ininorganic fertilizer prices will lead to more erosion because farmers will use less fertilizer,obtain lower yields, and increase their cropped area.
